NCAA Tournament: Which No. 1 Seed Has the Easiest and Toughest Path to the Final Four?
With the NCAA Tournament bracket officially revealed, the madness is about to begin. Each of the four No. 1 seeds now knows their road to the Final Four, but not all paths are created equal. While some top-seeded teams may have a relatively smooth journey, others face a much more challenging battle to reach the final weekend of the tournament.
Easiest Path: Duke
Among the four No. 1 seeds, Duke appears to have the most favorable draw. The Blue Devils enter the tournament with an impressive 31-3 record, having secured nine Quad 1 victories and dominating ACC play throughout the season. Ranked as the second overall No. 1 seed, behind only Auburn, Duke finds itself in a region where the competition is strong but not as daunting as that of other top seeds.
In the East Region, the next three highest seeds are Alabama (No. 2), Wisconsin (No. 3), and Arizona (No. 4). Among them, Alabama has the highest NET ranking at No. 6, with 11 Quad 1 wins. Arizona follows with a No. 12 NET ranking and 10 Quad 1 wins, while Wisconsin is ranked No. 15 and has secured eight victories against Quad 1 opponents.
Despite Alabama’s strong resume, the Crimson Tide enter the tournament on a downward trend, having lost three of their last five games. Their defense has also struggled, which could be a major issue against Duke’s disciplined and efficient play. The Blue Devils boast the seventh-ranked defense in the nation, allowing just 61.9 points per game, making them well-equipped to handle offensive-minded opponents.
Duke’s second-round matchup also looks promising, as they would face either Mississippi State or Baylor, both of whom have suffered from inconsistency throughout the season and hold NET rankings of 30th or worse. Even if star freshman Cooper Flagg is not at full strength, Duke remains in an excellent position to make a deep tournament run and compete for their first national title since 2019.
Toughest Path: Auburn
As the No. 1 overall seed in the tournament, Auburn’s reward is anything but an easy road to the Final Four. The SEC regular-season champions may have dominated much of the season, but a rough finish—losing three of their last four games—raises concerns about their ability to navigate a grueling South Region.
Auburn’s region is stacked with elite competition, featuring Michigan State (No. 2 seed, NET ranking of 11), Iowa State (No. 3 seed, NET ranking of 9), and Texas A&M (No. 4 seed, NET ranking of 18). Collectively, these three teams have racked up 30 Quad 1 wins, ensuring that Auburn will have no easy matchups as they attempt to reach the Final Four for the first time since 2019.
Their potential second-round opponent—either Louisville (ACC Tournament runner-up) or Creighton (Big East Tournament runner-up)—would be a tough test, as both teams are battle-tested and playing their best basketball at the right time. If Auburn advances to the Sweet 16, they could face a showdown with Big Ten Tournament champion Michigan, another formidable challenge.
If the Tigers hope to reach the Final Four, they will need to be at their best from the opening round. Unlike Duke’s relatively smooth path, Auburn will have to fight through a gauntlet of elite teams to earn a trip to the national semifinals.
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